Forecasting Future Skills Supply in Europe

The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop), in cooperation with several research teams (IER, ROA, CE) and Skillsnet experts, has recently published a forecast of skills supply in Europe up to 2020.

The report presents macroeconomic projections at national, local and sectoral level, as well as alternative scenarios for each Member State and aggregate results for Europe. Results suggest an overall growth in the numbers of people holding medium and high-level qualifications both in the population and in the labour force. In contrast, the population aged 15+ with low-level or no qualification is expected to fall by more than 28 million between 2007 and 2020.

Despite this overall positive picture, the report highlights policymakers’ concern that the current financial crisis could have a negative impact on these trends, discouraging investments in human capital or increasing individuals’ educational participation as a way of delaying entry to a depressed labour market. Policymakers are encouraged to ensure that investments in education and lifelong learning are realised to prevent a less positive scenario.

Click here to read the full version of the report.